مقاله رابطه بین كسورات بودجه وورودیهای سرمایه ای:شواهد اقتصادی بیشتر

مقاله رابطه بین كسورات بودجه وورودیهای سرمایه ایشواهد اقتصادی بیشتر در 10 صفحه با فرمت pdf و 12 صفحه ای با فرمت word

This research note examines the impact offederal deficits on U.S. capital inflows. Expanding on
the previous work of Bahmani-Oskooee and Payesteh (1994), we employ the relatively new maximum likelihood procedure developed byJ ohansen (I 988) and Johansen and Juselius (I 990) to do
cointegration tests. The results find a long run relationship between blcdget de&its and capital
inflow. In addition, findings j?om error-correlation modeling reveal that short&m d&equilibria
in financial markets are corrected very rapidly, suggesting that these markets are efficient.
I. INTRODUCTION
In a recent issue of this journal Bahmani-Oskooee and Payesteh (1994) have
shown that in the United States budget deficits led to capital inflows in the 1973-
88 period. Using the Engle-Granger (1987) residual-based two-step cointegration procedure and error-correction model, they found budget deficits and capital inflows to be cointegrated. They attributed the relationship between budget
deficits and capital inflows to rising interest rates caused by public borrowing
and to improved expectations based on increased economic growth resulting
from budget stimulus. The evidence provided by Bahmani-Oskooee and Payesteh (hereafter BP) has made an important contribution to our understanding of
the effect of budget deficits on the economy. The purpose of this note is to
extend the evidence on the relationship between budget deficits and capital
flows by examining the data using the most recent cointegration procedure
developed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). Subsequent
analysis has suggested that the Engle-Granger cointegration technique suffers
from a number of econometric shortcomings. Our results further confirm the
existence of a long-run link between budget deficits and capital inflows. Moreover, we find that short-run disequilibria in the relationship of budget deficits